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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.