Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
